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European Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
ASAKURAwin 2:0
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ASAKURA

Lion
Lion
slimeyao · 11 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 11 games
91%
Lich
Lich
VaniLLl · 10 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
VaniLLl · 9 games
67%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Infernal · 9 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Infernal · 9 games
44%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 8 games
63%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
young G · 8 games
50%

Zero Tenacity

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 35 games
37%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 31 game
52%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 27 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 24 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 23 games
39%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 23 games
48%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
LeBronDota · 23 games
39%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
504 picks · 727 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
494 picks · 797 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
480 picks · 481 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
441 picks · 541 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
434 picks · 372 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
425 picks · 1015 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
399 picks · 924 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
390 picks · 763 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% ASAKURA
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total67% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
ASAKURA 33%Zero Tenacity 67%
The model gave 67% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by ASAKURA.
Game 2prediction missed
ASAKURA 33%Zero Tenacity 67%
The model gave 67% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by ASAKURA.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 67%
Series resultASAKURA 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2