PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ascent Esportswin 1:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Young Bloodloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ascent Esports
Clockwerkoften banned
czy · 4 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 4 games
Dark Willow
TrazaM · 3 games
Lion
TrazaM · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 2 games
Muerta
TrazaM · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 2 games
Ogre Magi
czy · 2 games
Young Blood
Earthshaker
MamangDaya · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Red · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
TraVins · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
LOyd · 1 game
Shadow Shaman
dalul · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
409 picks · 522 bans
Muerta
400 picks · 326 bans
Tusk
366 picks · 385 bans
Pangolier
347 picks · 572 bans
Lion
345 picks · 171 bans
Batrider
340 picks · 426 bans
Beastmaster
332 picks · 777 bans
Gyrocopter
320 picks · 471 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 57%
Hero pool strength64% Young Blood
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Young Blood
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Ascent Esports 48%Young Blood 52%
The model gave 52% on Young Blood — the game was taken by Ascent Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteYoung Blood · 52%
Series resultAscent Esports 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1