Assault vs Army Geniuses — prediction DPC2S—ЗК 1 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO2

result vs prediction

Assaultloss 1:1

series probability

46%54%

probability at match start · final 1:1

Army Geniusesloss 1:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Assault

Beastmasteroften banned

Gy · 1 game

Clockwerk

rayy · 1 game

Enigmaoften banned

JoHnNy · 1 game

Shadow Shaman

JoHnNy · 1 game

Timbersawoften banned

Gy · 1 game

Undyingoften banned

rayy · 1 game

Army Geniuses

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Void Spirit

18 picks · 23 bans

50%

Puck

16 picks · 38 bans

55%

Monkey King

15 picks · 21 bans

53%

Mars

14 picks · 43 bans

56%

Earth Spirit

13 picks · 9 bans

59%

Crystal Maiden

11 picks · 0 bans

47%

Mirana

11 picks · 15 bans

53%

Tiny

11 picks · 8 bans

47%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%

Hero pool strength57% Army Geniuses

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total54% Army Geniuses

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct6:22

Assault 49%Army Geniuses 51%

The model gave 51% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 24:48.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo

MarsGy

little datalittle data

MagnusMamangDaya