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Asia Pacific Predator League 2024 · BO1
result vs prediction
Aster.Arieswin 1:0
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:0
747loss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aster.Aries

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
mercy · 4 games
25%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Ulu · 3 games
33%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
生死 · 2 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
RedPanda · 2 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RedPanda · 2 games
0%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
RedPanda · 1 game
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
mercy · 1 game
0%

747

Mars
Marsoften banned
db- · 2 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Karl · 2 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Boomy · 2 games
0%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
inYourdreaM · 2 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Jaunuel · 1 game
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Jaunuel · 1 game
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Boomy · 1 game
0%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Karl · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
239 picks · 374 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
225 picks · 296 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
213 picks · 99 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
211 picks · 198 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
190 picks · 360 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
186 picks · 519 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 55%
Hero pool strength56% 747
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% 747
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:29
Aster.Aries 41%747 59%
The model gave 59% on 747 — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 41:55.
Model check result
Model favorite747 · 59%
Series resultAster.Aries 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1