Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Arieswin 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Dandelion Esport Clubloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aster.Aries
Brewmastersignature
TK · 9 games
Shadow Shamansignature
RedPanda · 7 games
Razorsignature
Ulu · 6 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
RedPanda · 6 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
生死 · 5 games
Marsoften banned
生死 · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xwy · 5 games
Tiny
Ulu · 5 games
Dandelion Esport Club
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
570 picks · 464 bans
Mars
434 picks · 673 bans
Dragon Knight
411 picks · 530 bans
Bane
391 picks · 263 bans
Puck
381 picks · 848 bans
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 639 bans
Pangolier
337 picks · 559 bans
Snapfire
331 picks · 161 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Aster.Aries
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:12
Aster.Aries 53%Dandelion Esport Club 47%
The model gave 53% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 39:15.
Game 2prediction missed15:18
Aster.Aries 53%Dandelion Esport Club 47%
The model gave 53% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Dandelion Esport Club in 33:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 53%
Series resultAster.Aries 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2