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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aster.Aries

Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
TK · 7 games
86%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
RedPanda · 7 games
71%
Razor
Razorsignature
Ulu · 6 games
83%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
生死 · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 5 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
生死 · 5 games
40%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
RedPanda · 5 games
60%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
生死 · 4 games
50%

LGD Gaming

Bane
Banesignature
y` · 16 games
63%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
NothingToSay · 16 games
69%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
y` · 14 games
79%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
y` · 11 games
82%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Ame · 10 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 9 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 9 games
78%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 9 games
89%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
506 picks · 438 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
488 picks · 690 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
452 picks · 289 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
440 picks · 531 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 619 bans
56%
Sand King
Sand King
379 picks · 541 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
370 picks · 613 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
351 picks · 316 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Aster.Aries 37%LGD Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming.
Game 2prediction correct
Aster.Aries 37%LGD Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 63%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2