Aster.Aries vs Phoenix Gaming — prediction FDCS 3 · Dota 2

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FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3

result vs prediction

Aster.Arieswin 2:0

series probability

40%60%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Phoenix Gamingloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aster.Aries

No games played over 6 months.

Phoenix Gaming

Elder Titan

zzq · 5 games

40%

Mirana

pLAnet · 5 games

40%

Centaur Warrunner

Molasses · 3 games

Marsoften banned

Molasses · 3 games

33%

Pangolieroften banned

pLAnet · 3 games

67%

Void Spiritoften banned

Mercury · 3 games

33%

Dark Willow

pLAnet · 2 games

Gyrocopter

shiro · 2 games

50%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Puck

304 picks · 618 bans

54%

Void Spirit

285 picks · 350 bans

56%

Mars

244 picks · 427 bans

49%

Earth Spirit

232 picks · 184 bans

49%

Rubick

197 picks · 107 bans

51%

Keeper of the Light

195 picks · 378 bans

56%

Nyx Assassin

193 picks · 604 bans

60%

Phoenix

189 picks · 224 bans

59%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%

Hero pool strength53% Aster.Aries

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total60% Phoenix Gaming

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed42:40

Aster.Aries 46%Phoenix Gaming 54%

The model gave 54% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 1:05:49.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo