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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Piggy Killerwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aster.Aries

Phoenix
Phoenix
RedPanda · 13 games
31%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
White丶Album · 11 games
27%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
TK · 8 games
25%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
White丶Album · 7 games
29%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 7 games
71%
Rubick
Rubick
TK · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tiny
TK · 7 games
29%
Tusk
Tusk
White丶Album · 7 games
14%

Piggy Killer

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Srf · 8 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Frisk · 7 games
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
mercy · 5 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
mercy · 5 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Victoria · 5 games
80%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Srf · 5 games
20%
Mirana
Mirana
Frisk · 5 games
80%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Xm · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
696 picks · 597 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
562 picks · 493 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
460 picks · 1114 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
450 picks · 824 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
407 picks · 1044 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
386 picks · 835 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
385 picks · 210 bans
57%
Enchantress
Enchantress
384 picks · 550 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 65%
Hero pool strength68% Piggy Killer
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Piggy Killer
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:12
Aster.Aries 38%Piggy Killer 62%
The model gave 62% on Piggy Killer — the game was taken by Piggy Killer in 30:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritXwy
53% · 211 games46% · 28 games
Phantom Lancerflyfly
Phantom Lancer
Juggernaut
JuggernautUlu
58% · 59 games55% · 119 games
Void SpiritXm
Void Spirit
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker生死
44% · 42 games52% · 128 games
TimbersawSrf
Timbersaw
Enchantress
EnchantressTK
46% · 178 games47% · 30 games
Shadow DemonFrisk
Shadow Demon
Venomancer
VenomancerRedPanda
49% · 39 games44% · 224 games
Crystal Maidenmercy
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct18:30
Aster.Aries 37%Piggy Killer 63%
The model gave 63% on Piggy Killer — the game was taken by Piggy Killer in 37:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaUlu
61% · 108 games52% · 49 games
Juggernautflyfly
Juggernaut
Void Spirit
Void SpiritXwy
51% · 124 games52% · 102 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Tidehunter
Tidehunter生死
45% · 93 games51% · 177 games
BeastmasterSrf
Beastmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonTK
49% · 31 game36% · 59 games
WindrangerFrisk
Windranger
Silencer
SilencerRedPanda
49% · 123 games50% · 92 games
Skywrath Magemercy
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoritePiggy Killer · 71%
Series resultPiggy Killer 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2