i-League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aster.Aries
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 16 games
Marsoften banned
生死 · 14 games
Ursaoften banned
Ulu · 10 games
Abaddonoften banned
Fantasy · 9 games
Grimstroke
Fantasy · 9 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 8 games
Doomoften banned
生死 · 8 games
Team Aster
Puckoften banned
White丶Album · 22 games
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 20 games
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 20 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 19 games
Axesignature
Xxs · 15 games
Lionsignature
BoBoKa · 15 games
Treant Protector
LaNm · 15 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Monet · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
410 picks · 190 bans
Hoodwink
357 picks · 134 bans
Nyx Assassin
297 picks · 602 bans
Puck
283 picks · 621 bans
Dragon Knight
281 picks · 359 bans
Mars
281 picks · 470 bans
Winter Wyvern
270 picks · 237 bans
Lina
250 picks · 359 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:28
Aster.Aries 29%Team Aster 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 43:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback生死
Troll WarlordMonet
Monkey KingUlu
LinaWhite丶Album
Void Spiritphoenix
Night StalkerXxs
EarthshakerTK
ChenLaNm
SilencerFantasy
LionBoBoKa
Game 2prediction correct8:32
Aster.Aries 33%Team Aster 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 30:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaUlu
SvenMonet
Queen of Painphoenix
Storm SpiritWhite丶Album
Slardar生死
WindrangerXxs
EarthshakerTK
PudgeBoBoKa
UndyingFantasy
LichLaNm
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 82%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2