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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Arieswin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aster.Aries

Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 12 games
42%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fantasy · 9 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 9 games
11%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Fantasy · 7 games
29%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 7 games
43%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Ulu · 7 games
43%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 7 games
43%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 6 games
17%

Xtreme Gaming

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Storm · 6 games
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Storm · 6 games
67%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Storm · 4 games
25%
Windranger
Windranger
Storm · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
bLink · 3 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Storm · 2 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Storm · 2 games
0%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Storm · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
475 picks · 190 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
377 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
365 picks · 587 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
357 picks · 875 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
331 picks · 310 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
326 picks · 247 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
320 picks · 447 bans
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 409 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:16
Aster.Aries 63%Xtreme Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 39:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaUlu
64% · 10 games41% · 84 games
Storm SpiritStorm
Storm Spirit
Doom
Doom生死
46% · 9 games
Puck
Puckphoenix
65% · 30 games
Phoenix
PhoenixFantasy
56% · 35 games
Game 2prediction correct27:11
Aster.Aries 65%Xtreme Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 48:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaUlu
50% · 12 games44% · 80 games
LinaStorm
Lina
Doom
Doom生死
56% · 12 games
Puck
Puckphoenix
59% · 30 games
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionFantasy
57% · 26 games
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 72%
Series resultAster.Aries 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2