Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO1
result vs prediction
Aster.Ariesloss 0:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Xtreme Gamingwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aster.Aries
Brewmastersignature
TK · 10 games
Shadow Shamansignature
RedPanda · 8 games
Razorsignature
Ulu · 7 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
RedPanda · 7 games
Marsoften banned
生死 · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Xwy · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
生死 · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xwy · 5 games
Xtreme Gaming
Templar Assassinsignature
lou · 15 games
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 12 games
Puckoften banned
Paparazi · 12 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pyw · 11 games
Dragon Knightsignature
ELeVeN · 10 games
Weaversignature
Pyw · 10 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 9 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Paparazi · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
589 picks · 449 bans
Mars
408 picks · 627 bans
Puck
406 picks · 859 bans
Dragon Knight
387 picks · 497 bans
Bane
361 picks · 238 bans
Snapfire
339 picks · 170 bans
Ember Spirit
323 picks · 601 bans
Pangolier
299 picks · 524 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:28
Aster.Aries 46%Xtreme Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 37:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinXwy
LinaPaparazi
Timbersaw生死
Wraith Kinglou
RazorUlu
UnderlordELeVeN
TinyTK
SnapfireDy
ClockwerkRedPanda
Monkey KingPyw
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 53%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1