Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Arieswin 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ybb Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aster.Aries
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 8 games
Lion
TK · 7 games
Doomoften banned
生死 · 6 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Fantasy · 6 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
生死 · 5 games
Magnusoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 5 games
Dragon Knight
生死 · 4 games
Ybb Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
288 picks · 433 bans
Tidehunter
272 picks · 404 bans
Monkey King
264 picks · 677 bans
Bane
258 picks · 194 bans
Weaver
236 picks · 481 bans
Snapfire
224 picks · 124 bans
Void Spirit
214 picks · 258 bans
Lina
213 picks · 483 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 75%
Hero pool strength53% Ybb Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Ybb Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:7
Aster.Aries 43%Ybb Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Ybb Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 31:20.
Game 2prediction missed28:9
Aster.Aries 43%Ybb Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Ybb Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 24:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteYbb Gaming · 57%
Series resultAster.Aries 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2