Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Arieswin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ybb Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aster.Aries
Marsoften banned
生死 · 7 games
Grimstroke
TK · 6 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
phoenix · 6 games
Iooften banned
TK · 5 games
Ogre Magi
RedPanda · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Ulu · 5 games
Treant Protector
RedPanda · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
phoenix · 4 games
Ybb Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
446 picks · 267 bans
Queen of Pain
372 picks · 499 bans
Mars
370 picks · 519 bans
Weaver
352 picks · 479 bans
Death Prophet
284 picks · 437 bans
Kunkka
282 picks · 500 bans
Grimstroke
265 picks · 183 bans
Ember Spirit
263 picks · 313 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Aster.Aries
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:19
Aster.Aries 56%Ybb Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 40:44.
Game 2prediction correct32:17
Aster.Aries 56%Ybb Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 30:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 56%
Series resultAster.Aries 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2