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PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Astini+5win 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Astini+5

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
SoNNeikO · 5 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
Daze · 5 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Daze · 4 games
25%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
4nalog · 4 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 3 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristleback
DM · 3 games
67%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 3 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenix
DM · 3 games
100%

Nemiga Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 12 games
42%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
VaniLLl · 10 games
30%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 9 games
44%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Covisnine · 9 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 8 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
young G · 8 games
38%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Covisnine · 8 games
13%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
VaniLLl · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
624 picks · 812 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
551 picks · 573 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
450 picks · 398 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
445 picks · 296 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
397 picks · 1043 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
385 picks · 679 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
378 picks · 594 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
361 picks · 511 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% Astini+5
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Astini+5
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:20
Astini+5 62%Nemiga Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Astini+5 — the game was taken by Astini+5 in 43:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaTA2000
50% · 308 games60% · 104 games
Faceless Voidselfhate
Faceless Void
Viper
Viper4nalog
49% · 125 games56% · 436 games
Ember Spirityoung G
Ember Spirit
Batrider
BatriderDM
49% · 364 games49% · 354 games
SlardarCovisnine
Slardar
Warlock
WarlockSoNNeikO
43% · 607 games48% · 713 games
Jakiroariel
Jakiro
Tusk
TuskDaze
49% · 624 games48% · 421 game
DisruptorVaniLLl
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct25:20
Astini+5 61%Nemiga Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Astini+5 — the game was taken by Astini+5 in 42:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkTA2000
49% · 100 games48% · 365 games
Beastmasterselfhate
Beastmaster
Leshrac
Leshrac4nalog
47% · 231 game54% · 466 games
Ember Spirityoung G
Ember Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixDM
49% · 252 games53% · 215 games
UnderlordCovisnine
Underlord
Warlock
WarlockSoNNeikO
47% · 520 games53% · 295 games
Hoodwinkariel
Hoodwink
Tiny
TinyDaze
47% · 624 games52% · 386 games
RingmasterVaniLLl
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteAstini+5 · 73%
Series resultAstini+5 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2