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PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Astini+5loss 1:2
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spirit Academywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Astini+5

Tusk
Tusk
Daze · 7 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
SoNNeikO · 6 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Daze · 6 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 5 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 4 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenix
DM · 4 games
100%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
4nalog · 4 games
75%
Warlock
Warlock
SoNNeikO · 4 games
75%

Team Spirit Academy

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 19 games
21%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
kyford · 17 games
24%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 15 games
53%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
kyford · 13 games
31%
Lion
Lion
Aidar · 13 games
46%
Warlock
Warlock
kyford · 13 games
23%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 13 games
46%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
SunshineRR · 12 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
631 picks · 814 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
559 picks · 577 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
453 picks · 400 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
447 picks · 296 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
403 picks · 1048 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
385 picks · 681 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 601 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
361 picks · 962 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 33%
Hero pool strength62% Astini+5
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Astini+5
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:13
Astini+5 76%Team Spirit Academy 24%
The model gave 76% on Astini+5 — the game was taken by Astini+5 in 33:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaTA2000
50% · 183 games56% · 262 games
Shadow Fiendhairo
Shadow Fiend
Brewmaster
BrewmasterDM
45% · 105 games54% · 277 games
Bristlebackkae
Bristleback
Sniper
Sniper4nalog
47% · 81 game44% · 83 games
Huskar86
Huskar
Warlock
WarlockSoNNeikO
50% · 364 games51% · 283 games
Shadow DemonAidar
Shadow Demon
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanDaze
50% · 231 game53% · 59 games
Ogre Magikyford
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction missed26:38
Astini+5 76%Team Spirit Academy 24%
The model gave 76% on Astini+5 — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 44:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendTA2000
57% · 268 games47% · 82 games
Slarkhairo
Slark
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit4nalog
51% · 360 games45% · 234 games
Axekae
Axe
Brewmaster
BrewmasterDM
49% · 122 games46% · 504 games
Tiny86
Tiny
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritDaze
60% · 39 games49% · 522 games
Warlockkyford
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroSoNNeikO
49% · 643 games52% · 90 games
LionAidar
Lion
Game 3prediction missed25:53
Astini+5 75%Team Spirit Academy 25%
The model gave 75% on Astini+5 — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 49:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTA2000
50% · 234 games55% · 361 game
Ursahairo
Ursa
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain4nalog
48% · 211 games44% · 167 games
Brewmasterkae
Brewmaster
Bristleback
BristlebackDM
57% · 195 games47% · 289 games
Sand King86
Sand King
Jakiro
JakiroSoNNeikO
47% · 397 games49% · 285 games
Dark WillowAidar
Dark Willow
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanDaze
56% · 252 games48% · 187 games
Dazzlekyford
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteAstini+5 · 90%
Series resultTeam Spirit Academy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3