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PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Astini+5win 2:1
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Astini+5

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
TA2000 · 2 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Daze · 2 games
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
DM · 1 game
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 1 game
100%
Bristleback
Bristleback
DM · 1 game
0%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
DM · 1 game
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Daze · 1 game
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 1 game
0%

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 39 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 37 games
51%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
MoOz · 37 games
54%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Se · 34 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 34 games
68%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Nefrit · 32 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Worick · 32 games
53%
Warlock
Warlock
MoOz · 29 games
48%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
602 picks · 812 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
542 picks · 555 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
434 picks · 397 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
427 picks · 295 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1029 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
382 picks · 670 bans
60%
Mars
Mars
371 picks · 594 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
348 picks · 519 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:30
Astini+5 42%Zero Tenacity 58%
The model gave 58% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 32:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTA2000
49% · 404 games51% · 579 games
Dragon KnightKami
Dragon Knight
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain4nalog
41% · 306 games55% · 302 games
UnderlordNefrit
Underlord
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDM
54% · 510 games49% · 609 games
Storm SpiritWorick
Storm Spirit
Warlock
WarlockSoNNeikO
49% · 560 games49% · 870 games
JakiroMoOz
Jakiro
Tusk
TuskDaze
46% · 626 games60% · 46 games
Earth SpiritdEsire
Earth Spirit
Game 2prediction missed33:33
Astini+5 41%Zero Tenacity 59%
The model gave 59% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Astini+5 in 50:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invoker4nalog
54% · 100 games46% · 143 games
WeaverKami
Weaver
Phoenix
PhoenixDM
48% · 191 game49% · 269 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Ursa
UrsaTA2000
48% · 219 games53% · 260 games
Shadow FiendWorick
Shadow Fiend
Chen
ChenSoNNeikO
60% · 134 games45% · 359 games
RingmasterMoOz
Ringmaster
Tusk
TuskDaze
48% · 421 game48% · 34 games
Earth SpiritdEsire
Earth Spirit
Game 3prediction missed32:15
Astini+5 41%Zero Tenacity 59%
The model gave 59% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Astini+5 in 44:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarTA2000
56% · 107 games55% · 285 games
Templar AssassinKami
Templar Assassin
Bristleback
BristlebackDM
51% · 314 games47% · 588 games
PuckWorick
Puck
Void Spirit
Void Spirit4nalog
46% · 446 games49% · 208 games
UnderlordNefrit
Underlord
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonDaze
50% · 410 games47% · 217 games
Dark WillowdEsire
Dark Willow
Jakiro
JakiroSoNNeikO
49% · 561 game49% · 540 games
TuskMoOz
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 66%
Series resultAstini+5 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3