ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionAAstroCatsloss 0:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:1
GateKeptwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AstroCats
No games played over 6 months.
GateKept
Silenceroften banned
CHAAANNN · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Chen · 3 games
Rubick
Chen · 3 games
Techiesoften banned
Chen · 3 games
Disruptor
CHAAANNN · 2 games
Lich
CHAAANNN · 2 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
CHAAANNN · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
JP · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 271 bans
Grimstroke
184 picks · 190 bans
Pangolier
183 picks · 388 bans
Dark Willow
178 picks · 75 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 167 bans
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
Earth Spirit
153 picks · 246 bans
Phoenix
152 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% GateKept
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% AstroCats
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
AstroCats 51%GateKept 49%
The model gave 51% on AstroCats — the game was taken by GateKept.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstroCats · 51%
Series resultGateKept 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1