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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Atlantic Cityloss 0:3
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Shopify Rebellionwin 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Atlantic City

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Gunnar · 2 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Gunnar · 1 game
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yuma · 1 game
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Fly · 1 game
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Lelis · 1 game
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Copy · 1 game
0%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 1 game
100%
Lion
Lion
Lelis · 1 game
100%

Shopify Rebellion

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yopaj · 18 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 13 games
46%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Hellscream · 12 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Skem · 12 games
58%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Yopaj · 11 games
64%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 11 games
55%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Skem · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
475 picks · 649 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
407 picks · 454 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 513 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
347 picks · 432 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
318 picks · 171 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
317 picks · 639 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
313 picks · 386 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
287 picks · 300 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 61%
Hero pool strength50% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:23
Atlantic City 46%Shopify Rebellion 54%
The model gave 54% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 31:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerCopy
32% · 9 games54% · 291 game
LunaTimado
Luna
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYuma
46% · 195 games40% · 89 games
Visagemangekyou
Visage
Doom
DoomGunnar
51% · 146 games48% · 118 games
Earth SpiritYopaj
Earth Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkLelis
53% · 194 games46% · 72 games
Nyx AssassinHellscream
Nyx Assassin
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFly
52% · 151 game60% · 125 games
ChenSkem
Chen
Game 2prediction correct6:31
Atlantic City 46%Shopify Rebellion 54%
The model gave 54% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 26:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaYuma
45% · 152 games55% · 135 games
Shadow FiendTimado
Shadow Fiend
Beastmaster
BeastmasterGunnar
48% · 224 games52% · 114 games
Earth SpiritYopaj
Earth Spirit
Earthshaker
EarthshakerCopy
54% · 62 games54% · 98 games
Enigmamangekyou
Enigma
Muerta
MuertaLelis
49% · 128 games53% · 194 games
BatriderHellscream
Batrider
Pugna
PugnaFly
48% · 144 games42% · 169 games
Crystal MaidenSkem
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct13:28
Atlantic City 48%Shopify Rebellion 52%
The model gave 52% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 32:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperCopy
49% · 127 games46% · 62 games
Broodmothermangekyou
Broodmother
Sand King
Sand KingGunnar
52% · 147 games48% · 244 games
Dragon KnightTimado
Dragon Knight
Magnus
MagnusYuma
49% · 149 games55% · 173 games
PuckYopaj
Puck
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLelis
52% · 288 games48% · 151 game
Dark WillowHellscream
Dark Willow
Lich
LichFly
58% · 24 games46% · 105 games
PugnaSkem
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 56%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 0:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3