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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Atlantisloss 1:2
series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Atlantis

No games played over 6 months.

Polaris Esports

Marci
Marcisignature
Boomy · 15 games
73%
Lina
Linasignature
Mac · 13 games
77%
Lich
Lichsignature
Eyyou · 10 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Bok · 9 games
89%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Bok · 9 games
78%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Force · 9 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
cml · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
593 picks · 387 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
530 picks · 517 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
523 picks · 431 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
411 picks · 485 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
376 picks · 366 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
347 picks · 184 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
310 picks · 753 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
307 picks · 201 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 72%
Hero pool strength59% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:36
Atlantis 16%Polaris Esports 84%
The model gave 84% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 35:28.
Game 2prediction correct32:7
Atlantis 16%Polaris Esports 84%
The model gave 84% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 24:17.
Game 3prediction correct28:15
Atlantis 16%Polaris Esports 84%
The model gave 84% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 27:44.
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 84%
Series resultPolaris Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3