Khaz Modan Cup Season 2 · BO2
result vs prediction
Atlantisloss 1:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:1
RFRed flowerloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Atlantis
No games played over 6 months.
Red flower
Grimstroke
Yyh_ · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Killa · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Killa · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
508 picks · 450 bans
Mars
493 picks · 694 bans
Bane
458 picks · 290 bans
Dragon Knight
438 picks · 537 bans
Sand King
400 picks · 551 bans
Storm Spirit
397 picks · 636 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 626 bans
Grimstroke
360 picks · 322 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Atlantis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Atlantis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Atlantis 54%Red flower 46%
The model gave 54% on Atlantis — the game was taken by Atlantis.
Game 2prediction missed
Atlantis 54%Red flower 46%
The model gave 54% on Atlantis — the game was taken by Red flower.
Model check result
Model favoriteAtlantis · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2