European Pro League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Atlas Burdenwin 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Atlas Burden
Grimstrokeoften banned
Hellscream · 4 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Panto · 3 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Worick · 3 games
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Panto · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 3 games
Pugnaoften banned
Panto · 3 games
Dark Willow
OneJey · 2 games
Natus Vincere Junior
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 16 games
Magnussignature
pma · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 15 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
pma · 15 games
Marcisignature
Daze · 13 games
Pugnasignature
Riddys · 11 games
Dragon Knight
Niku · 10 games
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
269 picks · 391 bans
Dark Willow
227 picks · 111 bans
Muerta
222 picks · 317 bans
Treant Protector
215 picks · 459 bans
Phoenix
212 picks · 301 bans
Kunkka
192 picks · 495 bans
Tusk
192 picks · 151 bans
Nature's Prophet
190 picks · 393 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 43%
Hero pool strength62% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Atlas Burden
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:31
Atlas Burden 51%Natus Vincere Junior 49%
The model gave 51% on Atlas Burden — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 34:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckSSS
Lifestealergotthejuice
Spirit Breakerchempik
Primal BeastNiku
PhoenixHellscream
Vengeful Spiritpma
Centaur WarrunnerPanto
MarciDaze
54% · 178 games
SnapfireRiddys
Game 2prediction correct34:25
Atlas Burden 51%Natus Vincere Junior 49%
The model gave 51% on Atlas Burden — the game was taken by Atlas Burden in 37:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckSSS
Faceless Voidgotthejuice
Spirit Breakerchempik
DazzleNiku
Ancient ApparitionPanto
Magnuspma
PugnaHellscream
TinyDaze
44% · 99 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Game 3prediction correct36:26
Atlas Burden 51%Natus Vincere Junior 49%
The model gave 51% on Atlas Burden — the game was taken by Atlas Burden in 57:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DazzleSSS
Morphlinggotthejuice
Centaur Warrunnerchempik
Keeper of the LightNiku
InvokerHellscream
Visagepma
PhoenixPanto
TinyDaze
56% · 119 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteAtlas Burden · 55%
Series resultAtlas Burden 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3