ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Atlas Burdenloss 1:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Kleewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Atlas Burden
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
nicky`cool · 1 game
Pugna
OneJey · 1 game
Svenoften banned
Smiling Knight · 1 game
Team Klee
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 271 bans
Grimstroke
180 picks · 171 bans
Pangolier
180 picks · 385 bans
Dark Willow
171 picks · 71 bans
Sven
170 picks · 246 bans
Earthshaker
167 picks · 166 bans
Earth Spirit
151 picks · 241 bans
Phoenix
149 picks · 196 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 67%
Hero pool strength59% Atlas Burden
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Team Klee
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Atlas Burden 39%Team Klee 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Klee — the game was taken by Atlas Burden.
Game 2prediction correct
Atlas Burden 39%Team Klee 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Klee — the game was taken by Team Klee.
Game 3prediction correct27:33
Atlas Burden 39%Team Klee 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Klee — the game was taken by Team Klee in 40:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Klee · 61%
Series resultTeam Klee 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3