Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Atomic Esportsloss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KOBOLDSwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Atomic Esports
No games played over 6 months.
KOBOLDS
Wraith Kingoften banned
FortuneSoul · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
FortuneSoul · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
260 picks · 370 bans
Tidehunter
260 picks · 386 bans
Monkey King
255 picks · 604 bans
Bane
224 picks · 166 bans
Lina
216 picks · 466 bans
Void Spirit
216 picks · 259 bans
Lion
214 picks · 102 bans
Pangolier
209 picks · 253 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% KOBOLDS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% KOBOLDS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:33
Atomic Esports 45%KOBOLDS 55%
The model gave 55% on KOBOLDS — the game was taken by KOBOLDS in 30:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaKarma丶
UrsaFortuneSoul
GrimstrokeJing
Game 2prediction correct9:32
Atomic Esports 48%KOBOLDS 52%
The model gave 52% on KOBOLDS — the game was taken by KOBOLDS in 24:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerKarma丶
Phantom AssassinFortuneSoul
RubickJing
Model check result
Model favoriteKOBOLDS · 56%
Series resultKOBOLDS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2