Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Atomic Esportsloss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MANTA Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Atomic Esports
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Marb · 7 games
Linaoften banned
Nishababy · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
Marb · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nishababy · 3 games
Leshracoften banned
Nishababy · 3 games
Tiny
Nishababy · 3 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Marb · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
Marb · 1 game
MANTA Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
762 picks · 606 bans
Disruptor
552 picks · 466 bans
Beastmaster
423 picks · 1001 bans
Tiny
417 picks · 380 bans
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 939 bans
Doom
393 picks · 592 bans
Undying
392 picks · 604 bans
Nature's Prophet
389 picks · 666 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Atomic Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Atomic Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed48:36
Atomic Esports 60%MANTA Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Atomic Esports — the game was taken by MANTA Esports in 1:11:21.
Game 2prediction missed22:47
Atomic Esports 60%MANTA Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Atomic Esports — the game was taken by MANTA Esports in 43:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteAtomic Esports · 60%
Series resultMANTA Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2