Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Atomic Esportswin 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
NNerdRigloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Atomic Esports
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Marb · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Marb · 2 games
Tiny
Nishababy · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Naga Sirenoften banned
Marb · 1 game
Outworld Destroyer
Nishababy · 1 game
NerdRig
Hoodwink
GaN- · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
YoungGodLevi · 1 game
Mirana
GaN- · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
YoungGodLevi · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
YoungGodLevi · 1 game
Rubick
GaN- · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
342 picks · 304 bans
Tusk
279 picks · 254 bans
Marci
273 picks · 521 bans
Undying
252 picks · 452 bans
Pangolier
236 picks · 507 bans
Primal Beast
221 picks · 551 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 320 bans
Crystal Maiden
204 picks · 116 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Atomic Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Atomic Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:28
Atomic Esports 47%NerdRig 53%
The model gave 53% on NerdRig — the game was taken by NerdRig in 39:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidMarb
Monkey KingYoungGodLevi
Ember SpiritNishababy
MiranaGaN-
Game 2prediction correct27:9
Atomic Esports 52%NerdRig 48%
The model gave 52% on Atomic Esports — the game was taken by Atomic Esports in 30:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetMarb
Faceless VoidYoungGodLevi
LinaNishababy
Dark WillowGaN-
Game 3prediction correct24:17
Atomic Esports 52%NerdRig 48%
The model gave 52% on Atomic Esports — the game was taken by Atomic Esports in 44:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaNishababy
SniperYoungGodLevi
MorphlingMarb
MiranaGaN-
Model check result
Model favoriteAtomic Esports · 51%
Series resultAtomic Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3