Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Atomic Esportswin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Covenantloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Atomic Esports
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Marb · 7 games
Linaoften banned
Nishababy · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
Marb · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nishababy · 3 games
Leshracoften banned
Nishababy · 3 games
Tiny
Nishababy · 3 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Marb · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
Marb · 1 game
The Covenant
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
749 picks · 607 bans
Disruptor
549 picks · 470 bans
Beastmaster
421 picks · 1009 bans
Tiny
406 picks · 376 bans
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 952 bans
Doom
394 picks · 623 bans
Undying
386 picks · 603 bans
Mirana
382 picks · 204 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Atomic Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Atomic Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:4
Atomic Esports 50%The Covenant 50%
The model gave 50% on Atomic Esports — the game was taken by Atomic Esports in 22:59.
Game 2prediction correct39:2
Atomic Esports 50%The Covenant 50%
The model gave 50% on Atomic Esports — the game was taken by Atomic Esports in 19:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteAtomic Esports · 50%
Series resultAtomic Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2