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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
1w Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Q · 13 games
46%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 13 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 13 games
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Jabz · 13 games
62%
Muerta
Muerta
Q · 12 games
33%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 12 games
67%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Abed · 11 games
36%

1w Team

Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 20 games
45%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 19 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
53%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 16 games
31%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Munkushi~ · 16 games
63%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 16 games
56%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
535 picks · 735 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
433 picks · 318 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
429 picks · 704 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
410 picks · 402 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
385 picks · 882 bans
57%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
384 picks · 678 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
382 picks · 1026 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
369 picks · 510 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total80% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Aurora Gaming 80%1w Team 20%
The model gave 80% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by 1w Team.
Game 2prediction correct22:11
Aurora Gaming 66%1w Team 34%
The model gave 66% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 35:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenNightfall
40% · 103 games54% · 223 games
BristlebackMunkushi~
Bristleback
Monkey King
Monkey Kingkiyotaka
52% · 208 games55% · 54 games
LycanSSS
Lycan
Magnus
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
53% · 168 games42% · 382 games
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Pangolier
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
52% · 183 games51% · 180 games
Windrangerswedenstrong
Windranger
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
53% · 203 games45% · 26 games
Ancient ApparitionHduo
Ancient Apparition
Game 3prediction correct51:29
Aurora Gaming 67%1w Team 33%
The model gave 67% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 1:01:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingNightfall
54% · 245 games55% · 226 games
BristlebackMunkushi~
Bristleback
Beastmaster
Beastmasterkiyotaka
49% · 340 games50% · 113 games
Queen of PainChira JUNIOR
Queen of Pain
Magnus
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
53% · 250 games51% · 106 games
TidehunterSSS
Tidehunter
Weaver
WeaverMira
49% · 132 games50% · 312 games
PhoenixHduo
Phoenix
Ringmaster
RingmasterPanto
49% · 12 games39% · 222 games
Tuskswedenstrong
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 80%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3