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FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1w Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 27 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 25 games
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 24 games
58%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 23 games
52%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 21 game
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 20 games
65%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Nightfall · 18 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 17 games
35%

1w Team

Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 31 game
77%
Warlock
Warlock
kasane · 29 games
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 28 games
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 28 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 26 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 26 games
69%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 23 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
SSS · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
545 picks · 885 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
518 picks · 392 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
477 picks · 644 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
469 picks · 597 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
400 picks · 842 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 589 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
351 picks · 572 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 491 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% 1w Team
Head-to-head7 – 0
Model total68% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:27
Aurora Gaming 60%1w Team 40%
The model gave 60% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 41:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerNightfall
50% · 223 games39% · 37 games
LunaMunkushi~
Luna
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
54% · 397 games54% · 319 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Enigma
EnigmaWs
60% · 139 games48% · 201 game
TidehunterSSS
Tidehunter
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageMira
43% · 116 games50% · 147 games
Ancient ApparitionRein
Ancient Apparition
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKaori
51% · 255 games46% · 426 games
Tuskswedenstrong
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct10:12
Aurora Gaming 58%1w Team 42%
The model gave 58% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 24:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendLorenof
46% · 131 game55% · 254 games
MuertaMunkushi~
Muerta
Windranger
WindrangerNightfall
45% · 205 games58% · 296 games
SlardarSSS
Slardar
Tidehunter
TidehunterWs
51% · 229 games50% · 477 games
TinySquad1x
Tiny
Tusk
TuskMira
48% · 439 games47% · 99 games
Crystal MaidenRein
Crystal Maiden
Warlock
WarlockKaori
45% · 371 game54% · 249 games
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 68%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2