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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4Piratesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 27 games
56%
Mars
Marssignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 20 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 20 games
40%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 20 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Nightfall · 19 games
58%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 19 games
32%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 17 games
71%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
60%

4Pirates

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 33 games
45%
Dazzle
Dazzle
PERDAN4IK · 28 games
54%
Tusk
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 28 games
29%
Disruptor
Disruptor
PERDAN4IK · 26 games
35%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 24 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 24 games
38%
Marci
Marcioften banned
PERDAN4IK · 23 games
52%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
мистер мораль · 23 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
559 picks · 691 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
507 picks · 340 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
481 picks · 661 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
446 picks · 534 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
419 picks · 145 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
402 picks · 191 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
376 picks · 518 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 510 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 35%
Hero pool strength53% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:10
Aurora Gaming 80%4Pirates 20%
The model gave 80% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 31:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerNightfall
44% · 127 games52% · 385 games
Puckcoldofff
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMikoto
47% · 290 games48% · 30 games
Drow Rangerzvёzd
Drow Ranger
Mars
MarsWs
53% · 308 games53% · 223 games
Hoodwinkariel
Hoodwink
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
49% · 253 games49% · 346 games
TuskPERDAN4IK
Tusk
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorKaori
70% · 6 games
Game 2prediction correct31:19
Aurora Gaming 80%4Pirates 20%
The model gave 80% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 41:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerNightfall
46% · 122 games54% · 277 games
Terrorbladezvёzd
Terrorblade
Viper
ViperMikoto
35% · 31 game58% · 282 games
Ember Spiritcoldofff
Ember Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerWs
44% · 169 games63% · 56 games
Pudgeariel
Pudge
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
47% · 194 games53% · 24 games
OmniknightPERDAN4IK
Omniknight
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
39% · 123 games
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 93%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2