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ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4Piratesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 27 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 23 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 21 game
38%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 20 games
55%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 19 games
47%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Nightfall · 17 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 17 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 16 games
75%

4Pirates

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 33 games
45%
Tusk
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 30 games
27%
Dazzle
Dazzle
PERDAN4IK · 28 games
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
PERDAN4IK · 26 games
35%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 24 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 24 games
38%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Otaker · 23 games
52%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
мистер мораль · 23 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
536 picks · 763 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
493 picks · 343 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
464 picks · 642 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
443 picks · 545 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
375 picks · 658 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
357 picks · 562 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
342 picks · 465 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
331 picks · 148 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 29%
Hero pool strength56% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total94% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:8
Aurora Gaming 79%4Pirates 21%
The model gave 79% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 29:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzNightfall
57% · 12 games59% · 178 games
Monkey Kingzvёzd
Monkey King
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMikoto
41% · 258 games54% · 138 games
Void Spiritcoldofff
Void Spirit
Axe
AxeWs
37% · 171 game53% · 300 games
Warlockariel
Warlock
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorKaori
56% · 8 games58% · 153 games
MarciPERDAN4IK
Marci
Tiny
TinyMira
52% · 320 games
Game 2prediction correct28:7
Aurora Gaming 80%4Pirates 20%
The model gave 80% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 25:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzNightfall
60% · 20 games52% · 13 games
Necrophoszvёzd
Necrophos
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMikoto
46% · 317 games53% · 284 games
Puckcoldofff
Puck
Tidehunter
TidehunterWs
50% · 147 games49% · 342 games
Tinyariel
Tiny
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
43% · 133 games54% · 104 games
Ancient ApparitionPERDAN4IK
Ancient Apparition
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
49% · 126 games
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 94%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2