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FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 32 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 31 game
68%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 30 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Mira · 29 games
62%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 26 games
58%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
70%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 22 games
77%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mira · 19 games
63%

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 29 games
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dEsire · 25 games
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 24 games
71%
Tiny
Tiny
Worick · 22 games
36%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 19 games
37%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mo13ei · 18 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 17 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
498 picks · 257 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
470 picks · 465 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
355 picks · 971 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
327 picks · 372 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
297 picks · 146 bans
52%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
295 picks · 489 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
293 picks · 500 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
290 picks · 614 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:20
Aurora Gaming 68%AVULUS 32%
The model gave 68% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 42:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonNightfall
52% · 206 games48% · 293 games
PuckLorenof
Puck
Lycan
LycanTORONTOTOKYO
55% · 141 game46% · 321 game
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
Terrorblade
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMikoto
58% · 232 games46% · 59 games
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
Brewmaster
Jakiro
JakiroOli
53% · 272 games43% · 153 games
HoodwinkThiolicor
Hoodwink
Lion
LionMira
44% · 169 games53% · 194 games
SilencerPuppey
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct31:13
Aurora Gaming 68%AVULUS 32%
The model gave 68% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 33:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
52% · 140 games49% · 284 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMikoto
40% · 162 games42% · 38 games
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
Brewmaster
Earthshaker
EarthshakerTORONTOTOKYO
49% · 177 games53% · 232 games
GyrocopterSmiling Knight
Gyrocopter
Snapfire
SnapfireMira
47% · 153 games57% · 149 games
Naga SirenPuppey
Naga Siren
Enchantress
EnchantressOli
44% · 136 games63% · 65 games
Keeper of the LightThiolicor
Keeper of the Light
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 80%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2