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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 20 games
40%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 14 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Q · 13 games
46%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Q · 12 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Malady · 12 games
83%
Muerta
Muerta
Q · 12 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Q · 11 games
55%

BETBOOM TEAM

Muerta
Muertasignature
Save- · 35 games
74%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 27 games
70%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Save- · 26 games
62%
Tusk
Tusk
Kataomi · 26 games
54%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 22 games
68%
Magnus
Magnussignature
MieRo · 21 game
76%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
kiyotaka · 20 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
MieRo · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
502 picks · 691 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
429 picks · 694 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
416 picks · 309 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
411 picks · 401 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
371 picks · 854 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
368 picks · 971 bans
58%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
363 picks · 606 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 500 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 53%
Hero pool strength60% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total68% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:16
Aurora Gaming 38%BETBOOM TEAM 62%
The model gave 62% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 34:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonNightfall
43% · 61 game50% · 98 games
LeshracgpK~
Leshrac
Invoker
Invokerkiyotaka
50% · 121 game54% · 70 games
SlarkPure~
Slark
Magnus
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
59% · 159 games48% · 143 games
MarsMieRo
Mars
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
50% · 127 games50% · 225 games
MuertaSave-
Muerta
Weaver
WeaverMira
45% · 115 games49% · 47 games
SilencerKataomi
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct11:36
Aurora Gaming 41%BETBOOM TEAM 59%
The model gave 59% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 34:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNightfall
44% · 238 games53% · 120 games
Nature's ProphetPure~
Nature's Prophet
Invoker
Invokerkiyotaka
44% · 167 games56% · 264 games
Monkey KinggpK~
Monkey King
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTORONTOTOKYO
45% · 238 games56% · 304 games
BristlebackMieRo
Bristleback
Tusk
TuskMira
46% · 214 gameslittle data
RingmasterSave-
Ringmaster
Silencer
SilencerPanto
58% · 29 games50% · 198 games
Crystal MaidenKataomi
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct20:36
Aurora Gaming 39%BETBOOM TEAM 61%
The model gave 61% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 55:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistNightfall
49% · 149 games44% · 155 games
UrsaPure~
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
53% · 302 games55% · 332 games
TinygpK~
Tiny
Abaddon
AbaddonTORONTOTOKYO
44% · 84 games48% · 252 games
BeastmasterMieRo
Beastmaster
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionMira
51% · 48 games47% · 55 games
Keeper of the LightSave-
Keeper of the Light
Phoenix
PhoenixPanto
51% · 387 games53% · 176 games
JakiroKataomi
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 68%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3