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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
42%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Panto · 15 games
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Jabz · 14 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 13 games
31%
Doom
Doomsignature
Jabz · 13 games
69%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 13 games
62%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 13 games
69%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 13 games
69%

BETBOOM TEAM

Muerta
Muertasignature
Save- · 41 game
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 31 game
68%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Pure~ · 27 games
70%
Tusk
Tusk
Kataomi · 25 games
56%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Save- · 24 games
58%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Kataomi · 23 games
61%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
gpK~ · 23 games
57%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 20 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
478 picks · 707 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
383 picks · 759 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
375 picks · 381 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
359 picks · 209 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
345 picks · 662 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
342 picks · 626 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
319 picks · 583 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
318 picks · 419 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total70% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:48
Aurora Gaming 39%BETBOOM TEAM 61%
The model gave 61% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 38:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNightfall
53% · 196 games51% · 347 games
GyrocopterPure~
Gyrocopter
Tiny
Tinykiyotaka
53% · 621 game53% · 439 games
PangoliergpK~
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerTORONTOTOKYO
53% · 254 games45% · 369 games
BeastmasterMieRo
Beastmaster
Ringmaster
RingmasterMira
43% · 95 games50% · 318 games
MuertaSave-
Muerta
Tusk
TuskPanto
47% · 418 games50% · 111 games
Naga SirenKataomi
Naga Siren
Game 2prediction missed32:37
Aurora Gaming 39%BETBOOM TEAM 61%
The model gave 61% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 44:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNightfall
43% · 157 games53% · 162 games
Phantom AssassinPure~
Phantom Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
52% · 213 games53% · 237 games
BristlebackgpK~
Bristleback
Medusa
MedusaTORONTOTOKYO
46% · 108 games55% · 163 games
WarlockKataomi
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
49% · 215 games51% · 35 games
Anti-MageMieRo
Anti-Mage
Ringmaster
RingmasterMira
48% · 86 games49% · 182 games
Shadow DemonSave-
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct15:35
Aurora Gaming 38%BETBOOM TEAM 62%
The model gave 62% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 41:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNightfall
45% · 201 game57% · 202 games
LifestealerPure~
Lifestealer
Tiny
Tinykiyotaka
55% · 412 games46% · 124 games
KunkkagpK~
Kunkka
Sand King
Sand KingTORONTOTOKYO
52% · 250 games46% · 456 games
BeastmasterMieRo
Beastmaster
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
49% · 243 games47% · 378 games
JakiroKataomi
Jakiro
Phoenix
PhoenixPanto
53% · 302 games49% · 248 games
WindrangerSave-
Windranger
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 70%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3