?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Kaori · 45 games
58%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 42 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 40 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 32 games
72%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 31 game
61%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 31 game
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 28 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 28 games
82%

BETBOOM TEAM

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Save- · 49 games
59%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kataomi · 36 games
61%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Kataomi · 29 games
62%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Kataomi · 26 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 24 games
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Kiritych · 23 games
78%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Save- · 23 games
61%
Puck
Puckoften banned
gpK~ · 22 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
627 picks · 997 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
520 picks · 445 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
460 picks · 502 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
451 picks · 1068 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
450 picks · 286 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
449 picks · 625 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
422 picks · 588 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
409 picks · 499 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 5
Model total65% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:21
Aurora Gaming 58%BETBOOM TEAM 42%
The model gave 58% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 25:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerNightfall
45% · 375 games49% · 308 games
Templar AssassinKiritych
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckLorenof
45% · 488 games53% · 436 games
Ember SpiritgpK~
Ember Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerWs
52% · 450 games54% · 255 games
BristlebackMieRo
Bristleback
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
50% · 349 games49% · 662 games
JakiroKataomi
Jakiro
Pugna
PugnaKaori
54% · 248 games50% · 249 games
MuertaSave-
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct37:13
Aurora Gaming 58%BETBOOM TEAM 42%
The model gave 58% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 49:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerNightfall
43% · 180 games54% · 318 games
Templar AssassinKiritych
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
51% · 269 games57% · 153 games
RazorgpK~
Razor
Primal Beast
Primal BeastWs
47% · 119 games52% · 335 games
BristlebackMieRo
Bristleback
Warlock
WarlockKaori
49% · 266 games48% · 301 game
MuertaSave-
Muerta
Tusk
TuskMira
44% · 349 games53% · 76 games
Ogre MagiKataomi
Ogre Magi
Game 3prediction correct36:19
Aurora Gaming 60%BETBOOM TEAM 40%
The model gave 60% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 43:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidNightfall
53% · 79 games48% · 394 games
Void SpiritgpK~
Void Spirit
Bristleback
BristlebackWs
52% · 193 games55% · 205 games
MuertaKiritych
Muerta
Puck
PuckLorenof
48% · 478 games45% · 116 games
RazorMieRo
Razor
Warlock
WarlockKaori
50% · 310 games52% · 403 games
DisruptorKataomi
Disruptor
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
58% · 270 games39% · 212 games
WindrangerSave-
Windranger
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 65%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3