The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Bleed Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Bleed Esports
Shadow Demonoften banned
Poloson · 10 games
Lifestealersignature
JaCkky · 8 games
Enchantresssignature
Poloson · 7 games
Faceless Voidsignature
JaCkky · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mikoto · 7 games
Hoodwink
DJ · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
DJ · 6 games
Rubicksignature
DJ · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
443 picks · 680 bans
Crystal Maiden
403 picks · 183 bans
Gyrocopter
397 picks · 422 bans
Centaur Warrunner
393 picks · 530 bans
Rubick
341 picks · 167 bans
Batrider
338 picks · 555 bans
Pangolier
334 picks · 635 bans
Dragon Knight
329 picks · 804 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 45%
Hero pool strength55% Bleed Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total84% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:20
Aurora Gaming 84%Bleed Esports 16%
The model gave 84% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 58:28.
Game 2prediction missed36:5
Aurora Gaming 84%Bleed Esports 16%
The model gave 84% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 40:53.
Game 3prediction missed34:10
Aurora Gaming 84%Bleed Esports 16%
The model gave 84% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 37:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 84%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3