DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 3:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Darlengloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Darleng
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
276 picks · 402 bans
Phoenix
265 picks · 398 bans
Grimstroke
259 picks · 435 bans
Tusk
224 picks · 206 bans
Nature's Prophet
221 picks · 575 bans
Lion
204 picks · 183 bans
Dark Willow
203 picks · 100 bans
Pangolier
203 picks · 291 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 73%
Hero pool strength50% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:21
Aurora Gaming 61%Darleng 39%
The model gave 61% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Darleng in 42:18.
Game 2prediction missed18:37
Aurora Gaming 61%Darleng 39%
The model gave 61% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Darleng in 38:44.
Game 3prediction missed27:29
Aurora Gaming 61%Darleng 39%
The model gave 61% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Darleng in 40:38.
Game 4prediction missed11:42
Aurora Gaming 61%Darleng 39%
The model gave 61% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Darleng in 36:07.
Game 5prediction missed8:26
Aurora Gaming 61%Darleng 39%
The model gave 61% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Darleng in 31:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 61%
Series resultAurora Gaming 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 5