DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Darlengloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Darleng
Leshracoften banned
Yowe · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
Abat · 4 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Jing · 4 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Kuku · 3 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Abat · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Kuku · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Kuku · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yowe · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
378 picks · 354 bans
Centaur Warrunner
365 picks · 589 bans
Mars
352 picks · 546 bans
Techies
352 picks · 279 bans
Vengeful Spirit
346 picks · 336 bans
Batrider
331 picks · 688 bans
Hoodwink
321 picks · 193 bans
Tiny
312 picks · 330 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 70%
Hero pool strength51% Darleng
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total59% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:11
Aurora Gaming 59%Darleng 41%
The model gave 59% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Darleng in 36:08.
Game 2prediction missed29:18
Aurora Gaming 59%Darleng 41%
The model gave 59% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Darleng in 48:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 59%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2