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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 1:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Execrationloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 33 games
48%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 33 games
45%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 32 games
66%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Mira · 29 games
62%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 27 games
70%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 26 games
69%
Puck
Puckoften banned
kiyotaka · 24 games
54%

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 26 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
Tino- · 18 games
61%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
cml · 17 games
59%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 15 games
47%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Shanks · 15 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 14 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 14 games
57%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Shanks · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
629 picks · 314 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
545 picks · 550 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
404 picks · 1125 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
387 picks · 205 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
366 picks · 615 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
354 picks · 391 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
352 picks · 160 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
348 picks · 273 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:12
Aurora Gaming 59%Execration 41%
The model gave 59% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 33:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
54% · 149 games49% · 353 games
GyrocopterPalos
Gyrocopter
Night Stalker
Night StalkerTORONTOTOKYO
43% · 84 games41% · 228 games
Queen of PainBob
Queen of Pain
Pangolier
PangolierMikoto
51% · 289 games52% · 221 game
MarsTino-
Mars
Chen
ChenOli
59% · 128 games46% · 7 games
Skywrath MageShanks
Skywrath Mage
Tusk
TuskMira
50% · 263 games52% · 104 games
Crystal Maidencml
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 68%
Series resultAurora Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1