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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 38 games
55%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Mira · 27 games
63%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 25 games
76%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Mira · 24 games
54%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 22 games
64%

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 33 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 26 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 25 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Malady · 23 games
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 19 games
42%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Ace · 18 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 17 games
47%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Malady · 17 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
563 picks · 639 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
489 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
469 picks · 419 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
410 picks · 854 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
398 picks · 452 bans
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
388 picks · 565 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
384 picks · 336 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 530 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 5
Model total53% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:29
Aurora Gaming 52%Gaimin Gladiators 48%
The model gave 52% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 25:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerNightfall
50% · 65 games51% · 61 game
Shadow FiendWatson
Shadow Fiend
Axe
AxeTORONTOTOKYO
49% · 38 games48% · 183 games
Ember SpiritQuinn
Ember Spirit
Puck
Puckkiyotaka
52% · 167 games46% · 56 games
UnderlordAce
Underlord
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
54% · 143 games46% · 128 games
Nature's ProphettOfu
Nature's Prophet
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPanto
51% · 97 games51% · 82 games
Naga SirenMalady
Naga Siren
Game 2prediction missed13:34
Aurora Gaming 52%Gaimin Gladiators 48%
The model gave 52% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 34:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNightfall
47% · 137 games52% · 286 games
TerrorbladeWatson
Terrorblade
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerTORONTOTOKYO
47% · 120 games51% · 174 games
Queen of PainQuinn
Queen of Pain
Pangolier
Pangolierkiyotaka
53% · 308 games51% · 154 games
AbaddonAce
Abaddon
Tusk
TuskMira
52% · 260 games51% · 416 games
Dark WillowtOfu
Dark Willow
Batrider
BatriderPanto
50% · 295 games43% · 90 games
DisruptorMalady
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 53%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2