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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GamerLegionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 51 game
65%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 49 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 49 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 45 games
64%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 38 games
61%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 38 games
76%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Nightfall · 35 games
77%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 34 games
65%

GamerLegion

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
RCY · 25 games
56%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Bignum · 24 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 22 games
45%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 22 games
41%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 21 game
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Speeed · 21 game
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 20 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 20 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
528 picks · 319 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
492 picks · 585 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
439 picks · 357 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
395 picks · 296 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
391 picks · 215 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
345 picks · 311 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
339 picks · 864 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
334 picks · 852 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 37%
Hero pool strength59% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:39
Aurora Gaming 72%GamerLegion 28%
The model gave 72% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 53:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawWs
56% · 157 games41% · 36 games
Drow RangerGhost
Drow Ranger
Doom
DoomNightfall
49% · 146 games52% · 321 game
Ember SpiritRCY
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierMikoto
43% · 294 games53% · 51 game
Night StalkerFayde
Night Stalker
Enchantress
EnchantressKaori
45% · 135 games55% · 42 games
Winter WyvernSpeeed
Winter Wyvern
Lion
LionMira
51% · 90 games53% · 372 games
HoodwinkBignum
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct34:13
Aurora Gaming 75%GamerLegion 25%
The model gave 75% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 32:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerNightfall
49% · 247 games52% · 451 game
Ember SpiritRCY
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
46% · 439 games44% · 21 game
Drow RangerGhost
Drow Ranger
Largo
LargoWs
61% · 139 games48% · 163 games
DoomFayde
Doom
Warlock
WarlockKaori
47% · 355 games53% · 363 games
HoodwinkBignum
Hoodwink
Lion
LionMira
53% · 137 games45% · 319 games
PhoenixSpeeed
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 86%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2