?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Heroicloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
Q · 9 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 8 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 7 games
43%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Jabz · 7 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 6 games
83%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 6 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
23savage · 6 games
67%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
23savage · 6 games
50%

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Scofield · 25 games
44%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 24 games
42%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Scofield · 22 games
59%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
47%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 19 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
4nalog · 18 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 17 games
59%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Scofield · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
410 picks · 372 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
385 picks · 419 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
377 picks · 544 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
344 picks · 256 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
329 picks · 711 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
316 picks · 579 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
313 picks · 633 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
310 picks · 717 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 41%
Hero pool strength52% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:19
Aurora Gaming 51%Heroic 49%
The model gave 51% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Heroic in 30:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling23savage
49% · 261 game50% · 306 games
Dragon KnightK1
Dragon Knight
Kunkka
KunkkaJabz
51% · 222 games51% · 186 games
Storm Spirit4nalog
Storm Spirit
Tiny
TinyLorenof
48% · 382 games49% · 298 games
MarsDavai
Mars
Mirana
MiranaQ
44% · 147 games50% · 301 game
Shadow DemonScofield
Shadow Demon
Elder Titan
Elder TitanOli
53% · 121 game59% · 42 games
OmniknightKJ
Omniknight
Game 2prediction correct30:18
Aurora Gaming 50%Heroic 50%
The model gave 50% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 45:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawLorenof
45% · 126 games56% · 98 games
Troll WarlordK1
Troll Warlord
Spectre
Spectre23savage
52% · 26 games46% · 75 games
Earth Spirit4nalog
Earth Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerJabz
50% · 158 games52% · 191 game
MarsDavai
Mars
Tusk
TuskQ
46% · 168 games51% · 226 games
PhoenixKJ
Phoenix
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonOli
52% · 222 games51% · 110 games
SnapfireScofield
Snapfire
Game 3prediction correct18:10
Aurora Gaming 50%Heroic 50%
The model gave 50% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 44:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
61% · 132 games52% · 197 games
Dragon KnightK1
Dragon Knight
Faceless Void
Faceless Void23savage
38% · 110 games52% · 203 games
Puck4nalog
Puck
Visage
VisageJabz
42% · 26 games49% · 25 games
AbaddonDavai
Abaddon
Tusk
TuskQ
46% · 150 games54% · 172 games
Dark WillowScofield
Dark Willow
Phoenix
PhoenixOli
49% · 201 game56% · 22 games
OmniknightKJ
Omniknight
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 53%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3