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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Q · 14 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 14 games
36%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 14 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Jabz · 13 games
62%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Q · 12 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Malady · 12 games
83%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Q · 11 games
55%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Abed · 11 games
36%

Heroic

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 28 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 27 games
70%
Muerta
Muerta
Scofield · 26 games
58%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Wisper · 21 game
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 21 game
62%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 20 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 19 games
42%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Davai · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
516 picks · 735 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
487 picks · 785 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
483 picks · 474 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
444 picks · 372 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
433 picks · 525 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
426 picks · 1039 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
413 picks · 931 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
393 picks · 532 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Heroic
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total57% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:10
Aurora Gaming 54%Heroic 46%
The model gave 54% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 41:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
55% · 97 games40% · 100 games
TerrorbladeYuma
Terrorblade
Sniper
SniperLorenof
51% · 86 games53% · 118 games
BrewmasterWisper
Brewmaster
Tidehunter
TidehunterTORONTOTOKYO
58% · 76 games47% · 53 games
Queen of Pain4nalog
Queen of Pain
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
52% · 173 games51% · 246 games
RubickScofield
Rubick
Weaver
WeaverMira
52% · 201 game43% · 116 games
MuertaKJ
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct33:19
Aurora Gaming 52%Heroic 48%
The model gave 52% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 46:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomNightfall
48% · 272 games50% · 215 games
Puck4nalog
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierLorenof
49% · 455 games52% · 88 games
UrsaYuma
Ursa
Viper
ViperTORONTOTOKYO
59% · 57 games54% · 83 games
TidehunterWisper
Tidehunter
Night Stalker
Night StalkerMira
47% · 93 games51% · 293 games
Shadow DemonScofield
Shadow Demon
Pugna
PugnaPanto
50% · 155 games45% · 353 games
BatriderKJ
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 57%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2