?
arrow_backBack to match
BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 0:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Heroicwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 33 games
48%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 33 games
45%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 32 games
66%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Mira · 29 games
62%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 27 games
70%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 26 games
69%
Puck
Puckoften banned
kiyotaka · 24 games
54%

Heroic

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 19 games
79%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 19 games
53%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 18 games
44%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 17 games
65%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
4nalog · 16 games
31%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 15 games
73%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Scofield · 14 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
620 picks · 307 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
535 picks · 545 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
395 picks · 1111 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
375 picks · 197 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
357 picks · 606 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
352 picks · 392 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
349 picks · 159 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
343 picks · 266 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total59% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:31
Aurora Gaming 44%Heroic 56%
The model gave 56% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 37:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenNightfall
43% · 107 games46% · 222 games
Queen of PainWisper
Queen of Pain
Mars
MarsTORONTOTOKYO
46% · 156 games53% · 50 games
PudgeYuma
Pudge
Pangolier
PangolierMikoto
48% · 297 games58% · 127 games
EnigmaDavai
Enigma
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterMira
49% · 115 games60% · 165 games
ChenKJ
Chen
Jakiro
JakiroOli
50% · 148 games47% · 259 games
ClockwerkScofield
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 59%
Series resultHeroic 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1