?
arrow_backBack to match
BLAST Slam IV · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Heroicwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 30 games
70%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Mira · 29 games
62%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 27 games
48%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 26 games
65%
Puck
Puckoften banned
kiyotaka · 26 games
46%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 26 games
65%
Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 25 games
56%

Heroic

Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 23 games
57%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
55%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 21 game
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 18 games
56%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 18 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 17 games
82%
Bane
Bane
KJ · 16 games
44%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
705 picks · 344 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
592 picks · 621 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
488 picks · 254 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 1152 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
400 picks · 680 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
398 picks · 254 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
384 picks · 390 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
346 picks · 394 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total61% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:31
Aurora Gaming 46%Heroic 54%
The model gave 54% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 33:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNightfall
51% · 167 games47% · 281 game
Dragon KnightYuma
Dragon Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
52% · 320 games44% · 114 games
AxeDavai
Axe
Slardar
SlardarTORONTOTOKYO
54% · 131 game43% · 127 games
LeshracWisper
Leshrac
Naga Siren
Naga SirenOli
62% · 146 games49% · 239 games
SnapfireScofield
Snapfire
Ringmaster
RingmasterMira
50% · 179 games48% · 182 games
Shadow DemonKJ
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct19:23
Aurora Gaming 43%Heroic 57%
The model gave 57% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 38:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenNightfall
50% · 102 games51% · 62 games
JuggernautYuma
Juggernaut
Slardar
SlardarTORONTOTOKYO
49% · 110 games47% · 273 games
BeastmasterWisper
Beastmaster
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMikoto
42% · 179 games50% · 224 games
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
Centaur Warrunner
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterMira
55% · 101 game61% · 151 game
ChenKJ
Chen
Jakiro
JakiroOli
49% · 256 games46% · 38 games
Skywrath MageScofield
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 61%
Series resultHeroic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2