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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ivoryloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Jabz · 14 games
57%
Batrider
Batrider
Q · 13 games
46%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Q · 12 games
42%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 12 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 11 games
64%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Q · 11 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Jabz · 10 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Q · 10 games
50%

Ivory

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ken · 4 games
50%
Batrider
Batrider
Dric~ · 2 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Rupido · 2 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Rupido · 2 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Dric~ · 2 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Ken · 2 games
100%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Rupido · 2 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ken · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
453 picks · 598 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
386 picks · 415 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
330 picks · 474 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
328 picks · 406 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
308 picks · 597 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
299 picks · 160 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
288 picks · 340 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
268 picks · 790 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Ivory
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:0
Aurora Gaming 74%Ivory 26%
The model gave 74% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 21:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistTA2000
59% · 125 games56% · 214 games
BeastmasterRupido
Beastmaster
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeJabz
42% · 88 games51% · 156 games
InvokerKen
Invoker
Pangolier
PangolierAbed
52% · 245 games48% · 253 games
HoodwinkDric~
Hoodwink
Tinker
TinkerMalady
37% · 18 games
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQ
47% · 147 games
Game 2prediction correct35:10
Aurora Gaming 74%Ivory 26%
The model gave 74% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 27:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaTA2000
47% · 135 games55% · 231 game
Storm SpiritKen
Storm Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterJabz
50% · 114 games55% · 64 games
DawnbreakerRupido
Dawnbreaker
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritAbed
39% · 87 games52% · 309 games
Dark WillowDric~
Dark Willow
Snapfire
SnapfireQ
46% · 94 games
Tusk
TuskMalady
49% · 174 games
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 90%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2