BLAST Slam VIII · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LGD Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
Hoodwink
Mira · 49 games
Phoenix
Kaori · 30 games
Windranger
Nightfall · 30 games
Lionsignature
Mira · 28 games
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 27 games
Jakiro
Kaori · 24 games
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 23 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 21 game
LGD Gaming
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 34 games
Baneoften banned
KJ · 22 games
Clockwerk
KJ · 22 games
Necrophosoften banned
Yuma · 22 games
Windranger
Thiolicor · 21 game
Dark Willow
Thiolicor · 18 games
Winter Wyvern
KJ · 18 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Wisper · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
522 picks · 315 bans
Dark Willow
440 picks · 212 bans
Mirana
391 picks · 176 bans
Winter Wyvern
338 picks · 306 bans
Ember Spirit
327 picks · 502 bans
Centaur Warrunner
307 picks · 293 bans
Earth Spirit
284 picks · 513 bans
Windranger
277 picks · 136 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 49%
Hero pool strength51% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total66% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Aurora Gaming 66%LGD Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming.
Game 2prediction correct26:14
Aurora Gaming 59%LGD Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 36:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
NecrophosWs
Templar AssassinWits
LifestealerSkiter
PangolierSumaiL
Earth SpiritMikoto
BrewmasterDavai
HoodwinkMira
RubickThiolicor
Winter WyvernKaori
TechiesSneyking
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 66%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2