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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 41 game
61%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 40 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 40 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 32 games
72%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 30 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 28 games
71%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 28 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 27 games
85%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 73 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 55 games
53%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 48 games
54%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 45 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
BOOM · 42 games
60%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 40 games
63%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 39 games
72%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 36 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
630 picks · 997 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
526 picks · 442 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
456 picks · 499 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
453 picks · 630 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
453 picks · 1067 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
445 picks · 282 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
426 picks · 586 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
416 picks · 501 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 45%
Hero pool strength54% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total79% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:21
Aurora Gaming 67%MOUZ 33%
The model gave 67% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 37:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNightfall
56% · 201 game49% · 318 games
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
Centaur Warrunner
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
43% · 343 games55% · 121 game
RazorMidOne
Razor
Brewmaster
BrewmasterWs
43% · 80 games50% · 353 games
Dragon KnightCrystallis
Dragon Knight
Warlock
WarlockKaori
47% · 380 games49% · 186 games
PhoenixSeleri
Phoenix
Lion
LionMira
57% · 59 games54% · 85 games
Nyx Assassinyamich
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed21:34
Aurora Gaming 68%MOUZ 32%
The model gave 68% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by MOUZ in 34:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
52% · 194 games48% · 337 games
BeastmasterCrystallis
Beastmaster
Viper
ViperLorenof
52% · 65 games52% · 139 games
InvokerMidOne
Invoker
Mars
MarsWs
45% · 229 games51% · 226 games
Dark SeerBOOM
Dark Seer
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
51% · 386 games52% · 236 games
PugnaSeleri
Pugna
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
46% · 146 games51% · 82 games
Nyx Assassinyamich
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction missed24:36
Aurora Gaming 67%MOUZ 33%
The model gave 67% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by MOUZ in 42:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerNightfall
44% · 239 games53% · 348 games
BristlebackBOOM
Bristleback
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
47% · 402 games57% · 297 games
Shadow FiendCrystallis
Shadow Fiend
Mars
MarsWs
46% · 356 games55% · 285 games
Sand KingMidOne
Sand King
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
47% · 612 games53% · 591 game
WarlockSeleri
Warlock
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
47% · 200 games52% · 288 games
Marciyamich
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 79%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3