?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 23 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
kiyotaka · 23 games
39%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 22 games
68%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 22 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mira · 21 game
67%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 21 game
62%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 19 games
74%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Mikoto · 19 games
58%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Riddys · 24 games
63%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Riddys · 23 games
48%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 23 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 22 games
68%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
77%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
74%
Dazzle
Dazzle
Riddys · 18 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Niku · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
770 picks · 354 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
574 picks · 299 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
548 picks · 551 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
531 picks · 400 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
516 picks · 627 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
487 picks · 291 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
469 picks · 740 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
459 picks · 509 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total54% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:32
Aurora Gaming 50%Natus Vincere 50%
The model gave 50% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 55:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonNightfall
46% · 330 games54% · 391 game
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
Gyrocopter
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMikoto
54% · 499 games52% · 414 games
Storm SpiritNiku
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastTORONTOTOKYO
51% · 172 games45% · 337 games
Marspma
Mars
Disruptor
DisruptorOli
51% · 377 games48% · 375 games
HoodwinkZayac
Hoodwink
Tusk
TuskMira
50% · 521 game50% · 382 games
WarlockRiddys
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct29:24
Aurora Gaming 49%Natus Vincere 51%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 1:03:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracMikoto
48% · 162 games53% · 265 games
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
Gyrocopter
Abaddon
AbaddonNightfall
47% · 225 games47% · 137 games
InvokerNiku
Invoker
Earthshaker
EarthshakerTORONTOTOKYO
48% · 227 games50% · 128 games
Tidehunterpma
Tidehunter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
49% · 306 games46% · 453 games
SnapfireZayac
Snapfire
Pugna
PugnaOli
52% · 209 games59% · 146 games
Naga SirenRiddys
Naga Siren
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 54%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2