?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 49 games
55%
Windranger
Windranger
Nightfall · 29 games
48%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 28 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 27 games
48%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 26 games
54%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Kaori · 25 games
56%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 23 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 21 game
52%

Natus Vincere

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Daze · 25 games
60%
Axe
Axesignature
pma · 23 games
78%
Kez
Kezsignature
Niku · 23 games
70%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Daze · 23 games
65%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
pma · 17 games
76%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Niku · 16 games
69%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Daze · 15 games
60%
Bane
Banesignature
Riddys · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
498 picks · 299 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
385 picks · 167 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
370 picks · 166 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
323 picks · 493 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
310 picks · 308 bans
54%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
301 picks · 283 bans
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 488 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
274 picks · 361 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 79%
Hero pool strength59% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total56% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:43
Aurora Gaming 52%Natus Vincere 48%
The model gave 52% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 45:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzSkiter
43% · 78 games53% · 149 games
Lone Druidgotthejuice
Lone Druid
Dark Seer
Dark SeerWs
49% · 132 games49% · 83 games
HuskarNiku
Huskar
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritStojkov
55% · 329 games52% · 270 games
Axepma
Axe
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernKaori
54% · 185 games45% · 425 games
Dark WillowDaze
Dark Willow
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
49% · 527 games50% · 324 games
BaneRiddys
Bane
Game 2prediction missed21:32
Aurora Gaming 51%Natus Vincere 49%
The model gave 51% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 43:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawWs
47% · 163 games40% · 159 games
Terrorbladegotthejuice
Terrorblade
Windranger
WindrangerSkiter
49% · 255 games53% · 252 games
Doompma
Doom
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritStojkov
55% · 305 games51% · 190 games
InvokerNiku
Invoker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
50% · 239 games48% · 266 games
MiranaDaze
Mirana
Undying
UndyingKaori
49% · 177 games58% · 272 games
Winter WyvernRiddys
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 56%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2