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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

No games played over 6 months.

Neon Esports

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 14 games
43%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Hishge · 13 games
62%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
FortuneSoul · 8 games
75%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ken · 8 games
63%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
FortuneSoul · 6 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ken · 6 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Hishge · 5 games
20%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Hishge · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
219 picks · 272 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
188 picks · 79 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
187 picks · 209 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
183 picks · 392 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
169 picks · 170 bans
59%
Sven
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
159 picks · 216 bans
49%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
158 picks · 251 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:36
Aurora Gaming 50%Neon Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 31:15.
Game 2prediction missed9:40
Aurora Gaming 50%Neon Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 26:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 50%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2